Monsoon Progress Note 2

08-06-2024 | 6 PM

Western branch of the monsoon has advanced rapidly along the west cost and into parts of south India during the past some days, as stated in the pervious note. Monsoon westerlies surge north, and so the E-W shear zone has also moved north. Under it’s influence, Monsoon advanced into entire Goa and the southernmost parts of the Konkan coast/South Maharashtra near Sindhudurg.

Rainfall reported in Goa during past 24 hours (up to 8:30)

1. Panji 37.9 mm
2. Mormugao 58.8 mm

Share Zone running roughly at 16 degree North between 3. 1 km to 7.6 km above MSL. Which is expected to shift slightly north further. Share zone will oscillate roughly there b/w 16 -19 N during next 3-4 days. Monsoon will remain active along south konakan coast and adjoining parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka during next 3-4 days.

Monsoon may advance a few more miles further north along the Konkan coast and into some more parts of Maharashtra as well as central Arabian Sea during the next 3-4 days. Monsoon may reach Mumbai by around 11/13th June depends on further movement of share zone/UAC.

Monsoon may remain stalled near 20 N ,around North Konkan/South Gujarat Coast/Parts of Maharashtra for at least a week and probably few more days as conditions do not look favourable for further progress of Monsoon. At Mid-levels, Anticyclonic circulation sitting over Central parts of India and is anticipated to remain over parts of central India and surrounding for at least a week, Which may hinder the further progress of Monsoon.

Gujarat 8 to 14th June

Gujarat: The weather will remain hot and humid, with Maximum temperatures expected to range between 39-42�C in most interior regions. The heat index will be higher, causing people to feel sweaty and uncomfortable.

Pre Monsoon activities likely over scattered parts of state during next 4-5 days , most probably in south-eastern parts of state. Isolated parts of Southeast Gujarat may receive moderate to heavy showers.

Extended range forecast:- By looking as current conditions, Monsoon is unlikely to move into Gujarat up to 18 June, except some southernmost parts of south Gujarat.

Probably, Conditions may become favourable for advancement of Monsoon into parts of Gujarat during the last 10 days of June.

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