Monsoon to remain in hiatus mode for few more days, May gain momentum towards the end of June.

SW Monsoon has been in a lull phase for the past few days and is expected to remain so for a few more days.

Western Branch of Monsoon has not made any further progress from last 4-5 days and has lingered near 20 Degree North. It is unlikely to progress further north for at least a week.

The Eastern or Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon has been halted at the India-Bangla border for Several days now. Which may progress slowly further into parts of east-central India during next 4-6 days.

Though it is normal for the Monsoon to advance in phases, The sluggish progress of the monsoon can be attributed to the weakening of large scale Monsoon Circulation/northward-moving BSISO. (which may be influenced by the transitional/decaying phase of ENSO)

When can we expect the monsoon to gain momentum ?

Global models indicate that the Large Scale Monsoon Circulation may strengthen gradually after 21/22 June. As a result, BSISO may revive & advance further north by the last week of June will mark the further advancement of Monsoon.

Going by climatology and Global models output statistics, Monsoon will advance further into central & northern parts of India by the last week of June and may cover entire country by the first week of the July.

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Gujarat

As stated in a Previous Note,

Western Branch of Monsoon has lingered near 20 N / around Navsari-Vapi and is unlikely to advance further for at least a week.

By looking at current conditions and Global Model Indications, Conditions may start becoming favourable for further advancement of Monsoon into the Gujarat state towards the end of the June.

Forecast:- 15 to 23rd June

Hot and humid weather to continue during the forecast period, Maximum Temperatures will remain in range of 38-42 C. Scattered pre-monsoon activities will continue to occur in different parts of the state on various days.

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