Monsoon to remain in hiatus mode for few more days, May gain momentum towards the end of June.

Monsoon to remain in hiatus mode for few more days, May gain momentum towards the end of June.

SW Monsoon has been in a lull phase for the past few days and is expected to remain so for a few more days.

Western Branch of Monsoon has not made any further progress from last 4-5 days and has lingered near 20 Degree North. It is unlikely to progress further north for at least a week.

The Eastern or Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon has been halted at the India-Bangla border for Several days now. Which may progress slowly further into parts of east-central India during next 4-6 days.

Though it is normal for the Monsoon to advance in phases, The sluggish progress of the monsoon can be attributed to the weakening of large scale Monsoon Circulation/northward-moving BSISO. (which may be influenced by the transitional/decaying phase of ENSO)

When can we expect the monsoon to gain momentum ?

Global models indicate that the Large Scale Monsoon Circulation may strengthen gradually after 21/22 June. As a result, BSISO may revive & advance further north by the last week of June will mark the further advancement of Monsoon.

Going by climatology and Global models output statistics, Monsoon will advance further into central & northern parts of India by the last week of June and may cover entire country by the first week of the July.

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Gujarat

As stated in a Previous Note,

Western Branch of Monsoon has lingered near 20 N / around Navsari-Vapi and is unlikely to advance further for at least a week.

By looking at current conditions and Global Model Indications, Conditions may start becoming favourable for further advancement of Monsoon into the Gujarat state towards the end of the June.

Forecast:- 15 to 23rd June

Hot and humid weather to continue during the forecast period, Maximum Temperatures will remain in range of 38-42 C. Scattered pre-monsoon activities will continue to occur in different parts of the state on various days.

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4 Comments

  1. Dinesh detroja

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