Monsoon to regain momentum after a brief pause, likely to cover the entire country by the first week of July.

21-06-2024 | 3 PM

Monsoon Progress Note 4

The western branch of Monsoon remained stationary around 20 degree north from 10th June onwards, whereas the Eastern branch made some progress into parts of east-central India as mentioned in previous note.

In a view of strengthening deep layer Monsoon Flow , Monsoon is set to gain momentum in upcoming days and may cover the entire country by the first week of July.

Monsoon May move into Delhi by around 29/30th June.

Ankit’s Analysis

Owing to strengthening of deep layer Monsoon flow and Large-scale Monsoon Circulation, Share zone may take a shape at mid-levels around 18-19 N by 23/25th June, which may progress northwards gradually in subsequent days.

As a part of Large scale Circulation, A couple of Upper air circulations may take a shape over both end of North Indian Ocean.

1. UAC1 may emerge over East-Central Arabian Sea around Konkan & South Gujarat/Saurashtra coast around 24-25th June. UAC1 (as a UAC/ Trough) likely to hover over Central & North-East Arabian Sea and Nearby west coast for several days. It may gradually shift WNW in conjunction with the northward movement of the shear zone.

2. UAC2 may form over central BOB around 25/26th June, which may move nearly NW and travel over parts of East-Central and Northern India.

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Gujarat:-Conditions looks favourable for further advancement of monsoon during upcoming days. Monsoon will cover most parts of Gujarat between 23rd to 30th June. As a result of Monsoon advancement process and under influence of above mentioned weather systems, Parts of Gujarat will receive Light, medium, heavy rain/ showers during the period of 23 to 30th June. Some parts of Coastal South Gujarat/Saurashtra may get heavy to very heavy rainfall during that period.

Note:- Quantum and areas of rain may vary day by day, depends on how the synoptic weather systems evolve and atmospheric conditions on the given day. If required and time permits, regarding daily weather conditions and probable regions of rainfall, will post brief updates on blog or Facebook page.

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